Is America's recovery the real deal? Latest From The News Desk!!

Yale economics professor Robert Shiller stated last week that the US housing recovery could take an entire generation, with low confidence, high living costs and increasing unemployment all deterring buyers.

"I worry that we might not see a really major turnaround in our lifetimes," he told Reuters.

But Shiller may be about to be proven wrong, as a torrent of new reports suggests that US real estate is ready to bounce back from the brink of collapse. Is America's recovery the real deal?

According to the National Association of Realtors, things look promising. The association's forward-looking index of pending sales saw that contract signs rose by 4.1 per cent in March from February, 12.8 per cent above the same month last year. Indeed, the total number of sales in the first quarter of 2012 was the highest quarterly figure in five years, prompting NAR economist Lawrence Yun to herald 2012 as a year of recovery.

Similar records were set by Zillow's latest market report, which found that home values rose by 0.5 per cent from February to March, the largest monthly increase in six years. With prices expected to stay stable for the next 12 months, Zillow are equally confident that the market has effectively hit bottom.

"For people who have been waiting to time their home purchase close to market bottom, it's time to start shopping," commented Zillow's Chief Economist Stan Humphries.

But Shiller disagrees with both, even though the S&P/Case-Shiller index found that seasonally adjusted prices in 20 metropolitan areas increased by 0.2 per cent in February this year, "the first uptick in prices in 10 months".

Instead, Shiller, co-creator of the index, highlights the nine markets that hit post-bubble lows as a sign of continuing decline. "House prices have not been this low since 2002," addsCNN,

The low prices are certainly bad news for US residents, with home ownership down across the country and only half believing that their property is worth more now than when they bought it, a huge drop from 92 per cent in 2006.

But agents insist that while many homes are underwater, this is now a buyer's market, encouraging investors to take advantage of a "significant opportunity". 80 per cent of agents, according to a new RE/MAX survey, believe that house prices will not drop any further, with 70 per cent predicting that they will rise soon.

"With distressed properties still making up a sizeable portion of homes on the market, this inventory is being cleared effectively by buyers, who don't mind investing a little to fix up a property in return for an attractive bargain," RE/MAX CEO Margaret Kelly commented.

Other agents are less enthusiastic, though, particularly when it comes to the more troubled states. Speaking to OPP last week, Assetz International Ltd warned buyers not to pick up property in Detroit after a business partnership went sour, leaving buyers without refurbished properties to let.

"We sourced new suppliers to complete the house refurbishment works for typically $2,000 to $13,000 additional expenditure above the original purchase price, which enabled the investors to let the properties at yields of between 10% and 14% rather than the previously indicated 15%," recounted Assetz CEO Stuart Law. "This is still a very good outcome and two to three times UK net yields but the business failure caused distress to many of the purchasers."

"Almost all buyers did everything right," he added, countering any claims of fraud or ignorance. "They went over there on site visits, they carried out their own due diligence on top of that which we carried out, they looked into the rental market, but still got caught out..."

"We would no longer recommend Detroit," he concluded. "There are easier and safer places to put your money."

With agents, realtors, property portals and market experts disagreeing over various details, who can accurately gauge whether the American housing market really has turned the corner?

Perhaps the Americans who actually own the property are the best-placed to judge. A new survey from Gallup found that while 62 per cent of US homeowners said that their home was not worth more than when they purchased it, even they admit the affordability of US property makes this a good market for investment. 70 per cent of respondents said that "now is a good time to buy a house", up from 53 per cent in 2008.

"Most Americans recognize that now is likely a good time to buy a house," surmises Gallup. "Mortgage rates remain at historical lows and Federal Reserve policy seems determined to keep them low for some time to come."

Whether you believe Mr. Shiller's interpretation or not, the one thing that everyone agrees upon is that house prices are at an all-time low. And for many buyers, that may be enough.

Regards
Jay

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